Business Antifragility Strategies in the Cosmetics Industry: Modeling Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper investigates how antifragility strategies can be developed and applied within the cosmetics industry to turn volatility into a driver of growth. The aim is to provide a structured antifragility model for firms in emerging markets, particularly Moldova. The study draws on secondary data and cross-case analysis of international companies such as L’Oréal, Estée Lauder, Shiseido, and Coty, examining their responses to crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodologically, the paper employs comparative synthesis and scenario-based evaluation to identify common resilience and transformation patterns. The proposed model integrates digital transformation, diversification, supply chain redundancy, and real-time consumer feedback. Findings reveal that antifragile firms do not merely recover from disruption, they strengthen their position by institutionalizing adaptability, stakeholder learning loops, and proactive innovation. For cosmetics businesses in developing economies, the model offers actionable guidance for embedding antifragility into strategy and operations. It supports decision-making under uncertainty by offering flexible tools that align with resource constraints, enabling sustainable growth in a turbulent global environment. UDC: 687.5:338.34.053.2(478); JEL: M10, L21, O31, Q01